A border patrol of Papua New Guinea soldiers came under
fire from Indonesian troops a few weeks back – and not for the first time. No
one was injured, and the PNG soldiers did not shoot back. But this jungle
skirmish followed an earlier PNG complaint in April about trigger-happy
Indonesians hunting for rebels who cross from neighbouring provinces of West
Papua.
Alarm bells ought to be sounding in Australia. Here was an
ugly episode that could easily have turned into something far worse. PNG has
plenty of problems, and tension with Indonesia is just one. Australians should
pay more attention to what’s going on up north, not least to understand that
foisting an asylum seeker camp on Manus Island has created extra pressure in an
already-fragile country.
Far from the border with Indonesia, PNG has its own
separatist trouble. Passions on the resource-rich islands of Bougainville are
threatening to flare. Close observers believe the central government in Port
Moresby is simply in denial about the likelihood Bougainville will vote to cut
ties with PNG in the next few years.
No one is talking about a return to armed rebellion. At
least, not yet. But the window for independence is about to open and the shock
of a breakaway province could lead to rash decisions and unforeseen
consequences.
It all comes back to the details of a peace deal in 2001
that officially ended what is seen as the bloodiest Pacific conflict since
World War II. Fighting in Bougainville in the 1990s cost perhaps as many 20,000
lives, although the exact toll is not known and is probably lower. Suffice to
say, the fighting was vicious, drawn out, and devastated the local population.
It started with local anger about Bougainville’s huge
copper mine, Panguna. Then run by Australian company Rio Tinto, locals
complained about the environmental burden and that the riches were not fairly
shared. At the time, Panguna singularly comprised the biggest slice of the PNG
economy outside Australian aid donations, so when rebels shut down mining and
demanded independence, the fight was bitter.
The eventual peace accord created special autonomy for
Bougainville and involved a commitment to rid the islands of weapons. The deal
also required a referendum, to be held sometime in the five years after 2015,
for the people of Bougainville to decide whether to remain part of PNG or go it
alone.
That independence ballot, once a distant dream, is now a
dawning reality.
The sting in the peace deal was the referendum result must
also be ratified by the PNG Parliament. The Australian government will be
in an awkward bind should the people of Bougainville vote clearly for independence,
and yet the politicians in Port Moresby present an upraised middle finger in
return.
A report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in
November warned such an outcome would be ‘‘destabilising’’. I’d go with
disastrous.
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop went to Bougainville in
opposition and is alert to the problem. But the challenge for Australia is how
to get the PNG government more engaged in its restive province before the
ballot is held and not ignorantly stumble into a crisis. Canberra’s influence
has never been as strong as often assumed, but the need to keep Port Moresby
onside with asylum seeker processing on Manus Islands has reduced Australia’s
leverage even more.
The independence ballot does not yet have a date. In
Bougainville, some would like the vote to be in June next year - the first date
available under the terms of the peace deal. In Port Moresby, the few that even
think about Bougainville would prefer as late as possible, in 2020.
Or perhaps not at all. The peace deal also stipulates the
disposal of weapons, and some in Bougainville are still hesitant. A former
rebel fighter was quoted last month, arguing the guns should be retained for
posterity.
“Our land would have [been] for the PNG government and
people if we did not take weapons and chase them out,” Chris Bitunau has said.
“We cannot throw away our Bougainville history; the future generations have to
see and feel these guns, they have to know the owners of these guns in pictures
and in stories.”
It seems the two sides are on a collision course. The mood
of PNG’s government is not one of compromise. The country is awash with cash -
last week the first shipments of liquefied natural gas from a $US19 billion
project left for Japan. The Panguna mine doesn’t stand alone any more as a
source of income. And Prime Minister
Peter O’Neill has bragged the refugee deal he signed with
Kevin Rudd gave PNG greater control over Australia’s aid, too.
But it would be dangerous to assume PNG would be willing to
let Bougainville go without reconciling to the prospect long before. Should
tempers erupt again, there is no guarantee the soldiers won’t shoot back.
Sydney Morning
Herald by Daniel Flitton isenior correspondent.
Photo: Jason South
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