Defence in Japan - Don’t look back

Japan should be able to defend itself like any other country. Honouring war criminals makes that harder

IMAGINE that China decided to land soldiers on the disputed islands that it calls the Diaoyus. Japan, which administers the uninhabited rocks and knows them as the Senkakus, might, under its own laws, be unable to meet the incursion with force. The coastguard may repel private vessels, but not troops arriving from the air or from a submarine. It is not clear whether Japan’s pacifist constitution prevents its Self-Defence Forces from striking back until its own citizens are injured. Nor is it obvious that its main ally, America, would go to war to rid the Senkakus of the platoon of Chinese troops.

This uncertainty is dangerous, because it could lure China into miscalculation. In addition, Japan’s alliances would be stronger and more dependable if the country were a fully active member of them, able to shoulder its burden and come to its allies’ defence. Yet, although Asia would be more stable if Japan were more normal, the shadow of the second world war means that the country’s neighbours worry that their old enemy is about to forsake pacifism. Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, should be trying to allay their fears. He has chosen instead to visit a shrine commemorating high-ranking war criminals.

The uses of history

  Mr Abe’s ambition is to restore Japan after 20 years of stagnation. He is trying to revive the economy using “Abenomics”, a blend of reflation, stimulus and reform. As important are his designs for Japanese security. The concern is partly that a rising China could become a threat. It is also that in a scrape the United States might have to choose between its ally, Japan, and its main geopolitical focus, China. Some Japanese say privately that if their country can stand up for itself, America is more likely to take its side.

Part of Mr Abe’s plan is to strengthen ties with America. He chalked up a success a few weeks ago when, after 17 years of deadlock, the governor of Okinawa agreed that work could begin on a new American base on the island (see article). Mr Abe has also created a national security council and, at the end of the year, set out a defence strategy that will reverse his predecessor’s spending cuts and invest in ships, drones, submarines and a new amphibious brigade. This should help the Self-Defence Forces work more closely with Japan’s protector.

Even more controversially, Mr Abe will soon launch a debate about Japan’s constitution, drafted under American occupation. Its Article 9 renounces warfare and the threat or use of force, and is the reason why Japan cannot act as other countries do. The chances are that Article 9 will be “reinterpreted” to mean that Japan can in fact join the fight if its allies are attacked or strike to pre-empt a North Korean missile.

With so much yet to do, Mr Abe was wrong to visit the Yasukuni shrine, with its adjacent unpleasant and revisionist war museum. Morally, it is as if Angela Merkel were to pay her respects at a monument that, among other things, honours the Third Reich. Politically, it is self-defeating. At home some of the support he gains among ultra-nationalists will be offset by losses among other Japanese. Abroad it has undone much of the good work with America, which asked him not to go. Countries, such as China and South Korea, that suffered under Japanese imperialism are understandably horrified. Step by step, they fear, Japan is shedding the restraints that bound it after the war without having ever faced up to its crimes. In China, especially, Mr Abe is feeding the suspicion.

In fact in today’s world it is very hard to imagine a rebirth of Japanese militarism. The vast majority of Japanese would reject it—polls last year suggested that even coming to the aid of an ally would command only a slender majority of support. Even if ordinary Japanese wanted to be more aggressive, their country dedicates only about 1% of GDP to defence despite Mr Abe’s increase. That is not enough for Japan to throw its weight around Asia. And even if Japan built up its armed forces, it would come up against America, which has 16 bases there and provides the country’s nuclear umbrella.

Mr Abe does not need history to make his case for a normal Japan. The reason why his country should be freer to act in its own defence is because it should make a dangerous part of the world more stable. Were Japan a fully active ally, it would feel more secure and take more responsibility. It might even deal better with the past.  ‘The Economist’